No Free Lunch From Random Feature Ensembles

Given a budget on total model size, one must decide whether to train a single, large neural network or to combine the predictions of many smaller networks. We study this trade-off for ensembles of random-feature ridge regression models. We prove that when a fixed number of trainable parameters are partitioned among $K$ independently trained models, $K=1$ achieves optimal performance, provided the ridge parameter is optimally tuned. We then derive scaling laws which describe how the test risk of an ensemble of regression models decays with its total size. We identify conditions on the kernel and task eigenstructure under which ensembles can achieve near-optimal scaling laws. Training ensembles of deep convolutional neural networks on CIFAR-10 and a transformer architecture on C4, we find that a single large network outperforms any ensemble of networks with the same total number of parameters, provided the weight decay and feature-learning strength are tuned to their optimal values.

Learning Curves for Heterogeneous Feature-Subsampled Ridge Ensembles

Feature bagging is a well-established ensembling method which aims to reduce prediction variance by training estimators in an ensemble on random subsamples or projections of features. Typically, ensembles are chosen to be homogeneous, in the sense the the number of feature dimensions available to an estimator is uniform across the ensemble. Here, we introduce heterogeneous feature ensembling, with estimators built on varying number of feature dimensions, and consider its performance in a linear regression setting. We study an ensemble of linear predictors, each fit using ridge regression on a subset of the available features. We allow the number of features included in these subsets to vary. Using the replica trick from statistical physics, we derive learning curves for ridge ensembles with deterministic linear masks. We obtain explicit expressions for the learning curves in the case of equicorrelated data with an isotropic feature noise. Using the derived expressions, we investigate the effect of subsampling and ensembling, finding sharp transitions in the optimal ensembling strategy in the parameter space of noise level, data correlations, and data-task alignment. Finally, we suggest variable-dimension feature bagging as a strategy to mitigate double descent for robust machine learning in practice.