Agentic AI Systems Applied to tasks in Financial Services: Modeling and model risk management crews

The advent of large language models has ushered in a new era of agentic systems, where artificial intelligence programs exhibit remarkable autonomous decision-making capabilities across diverse domains. This paper explores agentic system workflows in the financial services industry. In particular, we build agentic crews that can effectively collaborate to perform complex modeling and model risk management (MRM) tasks. The modeling crew consists of a manager and multiple agents who perform specific tasks such as exploratory data analysis, feature engineering, model selection, hyperparameter tuning, model training, model evaluation, and writing documentation. The MRM crew consists of a manager along with specialized agents who perform tasks such as checking compliance of modeling documentation, model replication, conceptual soundness, analysis of outcomes, and writing documentation. We demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of modeling and MRM crews by presenting a series of numerical examples applied to credit card fraud detection, credit card approval, and portfolio credit risk modeling datasets.

MBExplainer: Multilevel bandit-based explanations for downstream models with augmented graph embeddings

In many industrial applications, it is common that the graph embeddings generated from training GNNs are used in an ensemble model where the embeddings are combined with other tabular features (e.g., original node or edge features) in a downstream ML task. The tabular features may even arise naturally if, e.g., one tries to build a graph such that some of the node or edge features are stored in a tabular format. Here we address the problem of explaining the output of such ensemble models for which the input features consist of learned neural graph embeddings combined with additional tabular features. We propose MBExplainer, a model-agnostic explanation approach for downstream models with augmented graph embeddings. MBExplainer returns a human-legible triple as an explanation for an instance prediction of the whole pipeline consisting of three components: a subgraph with the highest importance, the topmost important nodal features, and the topmost important augmented downstream features. A game-theoretic formulation is used to take the contributions of each component and their interactions into account by assigning three Shapley values corresponding to their own specific games. Finding the explanation requires an efficient search through the corresponding local search spaces corresponding to each component. MBExplainer applies a novel multilevel search algorithm that enables simultaneous pruning of local search spaces in a computationally tractable way. In particular, three interweaved Monte Carlo Tree Search are utilized to iteratively prune the local search spaces. MBExplainer also includes a global search algorithm that uses contextual bandits to efficiently allocate pruning budget among the local search spaces. We show the effectiveness of MBExplainer by presenting a set of comprehensive numerical examples on multiple public graph datasets for both node and graph classification tasks.

Mechanistic interpretability of large language models with applications to the financial services industry

Large Language Models such as GPTs (Generative Pre-trained Transformers) exhibit remarkable capabilities across a broad spectrum of applications. Nevertheless, due to their intrinsic complexity, these models present substantial challenges in interpreting their internal decision-making processes. This lack of transparency poses critical challenges when it comes to their adaptation by financial institutions, where concerns and accountability regarding bias, fairness, and reliability are of paramount importance. Mechanistic interpretability aims at reverse engineering complex AI models such as transformers. In this paper, we are pioneering the use of mechanistic interpretability to shed some light on the inner workings of large language models for use in financial services applications. We offer several examples of how algorithmic tasks can be designed for compliance monitoring purposes. In particular, we investigate GPT-2 Small's attention pattern when prompted to identify potential violation of Fair Lending laws. Using direct logit attribution, we study the contributions of each layer and its corresponding attention heads to the logit difference in the residual stream. Finally, we design clean and corrupted prompts and use activation patching as a causal intervention method to localize our task completion components further. We observe that the (positive) heads $10.2$ (head $2$, layer $10$), $10.7$, and $11.3$, as well as the (negative) heads $9.6$ and $10.6$ play a significant role in the task completion.