Confirmation Bias in Gaussian Mixture Models

Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational data do not support them. This issue is especially critical in scientific fields involving highly noisy observations, such as cryo-electron microscopy. This study investigates confirmation bias in Gaussian mixture models. We consider the following experiment: A team of scientists assumes they are analyzing data drawn from a Gaussian mixture model with known signals (hypotheses) as centroids. However, in reality, the observations consist entirely of noise without any informative structure. The researchers use a single iteration of the K-means or expectation-maximization algorithms, two popular algorithms to estimate the centroids. Despite the observations being pure noise, we show that these algorithms yield biased estimates that resemble the initial hypotheses, contradicting the unbiased expectation that averaging these noise observations would converge to zero. Namely, the algorithms generate estimates that mirror the postulated model, although the hypotheses (the presumed centroids of the Gaussian mixture) are not evident in the observations. Specifically, among other results, we prove a positive correlation between the estimates produced by the algorithms and the corresponding hypotheses. We also derive explicit closed-form expressions of the estimates for a finite and infinite number of hypotheses. This study underscores the risks of confirmation bias in low signal-to-noise environments, provides insights into potential pitfalls in scientific methodologies, and highlights the importance of prudent data interpretation.

Einstein from Noise: Statistical Analysis

``Einstein from noise" (EfN) is a prominent example of the model bias phenomenon: systematic errors in the statistical model that lead to erroneous but consistent estimates. In the EfN experiment, one falsely believes that a set of observations contains noisy, shifted copies of a template signal (e.g., an Einstein image), whereas in reality, it contains only pure noise observations. To estimate the signal, the observations are first aligned with the template using cross-correlation, and then averaged. Although the observations contain nothing but noise, it was recognized early on that this process produces a signal that resembles the template signal! This pitfall was at the heart of a central scientific controversy about validation techniques in structural biology. This paper provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of the EfN phenomenon above. We show that the Fourier phases of the EfN estimator (namely, the average of the aligned noise observations) converge to the Fourier phases of the template signal, explaining the observed structural similarity. Additionally, we prove that the convergence rate is inversely proportional to the number of noise observations and, in the high-dimensional regime, to the Fourier magnitudes of the template signal. Moreover, in the high-dimensional regime, the Fourier magnitudes converge to a scaled version of the template signal's Fourier magnitudes. This work not only deepens the theoretical understanding of the EfN phenomenon but also highlights potential pitfalls in template matching techniques and emphasizes the need for careful interpretation of noisy observations across disciplines in engineering, statistics, physics, and biology.