Predicting Critical Heat Flux with Uncertainty Quantification and Domain Generalization Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders and Deep Neural Networks

Deep generative models (DGMs) have proven to be powerful in generating realistic data samples. Their capability to learn the underlying distribution of a dataset enable them to generate synthetic data samples that closely resemble the original training dataset, thus addressing the challenge of data scarcity. In this work, we investigated the capabilities of DGMs by developing a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) model to augment the critical heat flux (CHF) measurement data that was used to generate the 2006 Groeneveld lookup table. To determine how this approach compared to traditional methods, a fine-tuned deep neural network (DNN) regression model was created and evaluated with the same dataset. Both the CVAE and DNN models achieved small mean absolute relative errors, with the CVAE model maintaining more favorable results. To quantify the uncertainty in the model's predictions, uncertainty quantification (UQ) was performed with repeated sampling of the CVAE model and ensembling of the DNN model. Following UQ, the DNN ensemble notably improved performance when compared to the baseline DNN model, while the CVAE model achieved similar results to its non-UQ results. The CVAE model was shown to have significantly less variability and a higher confidence after assessment of the prediction-wise relative standard deviations. Evaluating domain generalization, both models achieved small mean error values when predicting both inside and outside the training domain, with predictions outside the training domain showing slightly larger errors. Overall, the CVAE model was comparable to the DNN regression model in predicting CHF values but with better uncertainty behavior.

Data-Driven Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of PWR Crud-Induced Power Shift Using Convolutional Neural Networks

The development of Crud-Induced Power Shift (CIPS) is an operational challenge in Pressurized Water Reactors that is due to the development of crud on the fuel rod cladding. The available predictive tools developed previously, usually based on fundamental physics, are computationally expensive and have shown differing degrees of accuracy. This work proposes a completely top-down approach to predict CIPS instances on an assembly level with reactor-specific calibration built-in. Built using artificial neural networks, this work uses a three-dimensional convolutional approach to leverage the image-like layout of the input data. As a classifier, the convolutional neural network model predicts whether a given assembly will experience CIPS as well as the time of occurrence during a given cycle. This surrogate model is both trained and tested using a combination of calculated core model parameters and measured plant data from Unit 1 of the Catawba Nuclear Station. After the evaluation of its performance using various metrics, Monte Carlo dropout is employed for extensive uncertainty quantification of the model predictions. The results indicate that this methodology could be a viable approach in predicting CIPS with an assembly-level resolution across both clean and afflicted cycles, while using limited computational resources.