Explainable Time Series Prediction of Tyre Energy in Formula One Race Strategy

Formula One (F1) race strategy takes place in a high-pressure and fast-paced environment where split-second decisions can drastically affect race results. Two of the core decisions of race strategy are when to make pit stops (i.e. replace the cars' tyres) and which tyre compounds (hard, medium or soft, in normal conditions) to select. The optimal pit stop decisions can be determined by estimating the tyre degradation of these compounds, which in turn can be computed from the energy applied to each tyre, i.e. the tyre energy. In this work, we trained deep learning models, using the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 team's historic race data consisting of telemetry, to forecast tyre energies during races. Additionally, we fitted XGBoost, a decision tree-based machine learning algorithm, to the same dataset and compared the results, with both giving impressive performance. Furthermore, we incorporated two different explainable AI methods, namely feature importance and counterfactual explanations, to gain insights into the reasoning behind the forecasts. Our contributions thus result in an explainable, automated method which could assist F1 teams in optimising their race strategy.

Explainable Reinforcement Learning for Formula One Race Strategy

In Formula One, teams compete to develop their cars and achieve the highest possible finishing position in each race. During a race, however, teams are unable to alter the car, so they must improve their cars' finishing positions via race strategy, i.e. optimising their selection of which tyre compounds to put on the car and when to do so. In this work, we introduce a reinforcement learning model, RSRL (Race Strategy Reinforcement Learning), to control race strategies in simulations, offering a faster alternative to the industry standard of hard-coded and Monte Carlo-based race strategies. Controlling cars with a pace equating to an expected finishing position of P5.5 (where P1 represents first place and P20 is last place), RSRL achieves an average finishing position of P5.33 on our test race, the 2023 Bahrain Grand Prix, outperforming the best baseline of P5.63. We then demonstrate, in a generalisability study, how performance for one track or multiple tracks can be prioritised via training. Further, we supplement model predictions with feature importance, decision tree-based surrogate models, and decision tree counterfactuals towards improving user trust in the model. Finally, we provide illustrations which exemplify our approach in real-world situations, drawing parallels between simulations and reality.