Stochastic gradient descent plays a fundamental role in nearly all applications of deep learning. However its efficiency and remarkable ability to converge to global minimum remains shrouded in mystery. The loss function defined on a large network with large amount of data is known to be non-convex. However, relatively little has been explored about the behavior of loss function on individual batches. Remarkably, we show that for ResNet the loss for any fixed mini-batch when measured along side SGD trajectory appears to be accurately modeled by a quadratic function. In particular, a very low loss value can be reached in just one step of gradient descent with large enough learning rate. We propose a simple model and a geometric interpretation that allows to analyze the relationship between the gradients of stochastic mini-batches and the full batch and how the learning rate affects the relationship between improvement on individual and full batch. Our analysis allows us to discover the equivalency between iterate aggregates and specific learning rate schedules. In particular, for Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Stochastic Weight Averaging we show that our proposed model matches the observed training trajectories on ImageNet. Our theoretical model predicts that an even simpler averaging technique, averaging just two points a few steps apart, also significantly improves accuracy compared to the baseline. We validated our findings on ImageNet and other datasets using ResNet architecture.