The Deconfounded Recommender: A Causal Inference Approach to Recommendation

The goal of a recommender system is to show its users items that they will like. In forming its prediction, the recommender system tries to answer: "what would the rating be if we 'forced' the user to watch the movie?" This is a question about an intervention in the world, a causal question, and so traditional recommender systems are doing causal inference from observational data. This paper develops a causal inference approach to recommendation. Traditional recommenders are likely biased by unobserved confounders, variables that affect both the "treatment assignments" (which movies the users watch) and the "outcomes" (how they rate them). We develop the deconfounded recommender, a strategy to leverage classical recommendation models for causal predictions. The deconfounded recommender uses Poisson factorization on which movies users watched to infer latent confounders in the data; it then augments common recommendation models to correct for potential confounding bias. The deconfounded recommender improves recommendation and it enjoys stable performance against interventions on test sets.