Sequential Decision Making under Uncertainty with Dynamic Resource Constraints

This paper studies a class of constrained restless multi-armed bandits. The constraints are in the form of time varying availability of arms. This variation can be either stochastic or semi-deterministic. A fixed number of arms can be chosen to be played in each decision interval. The play of each arm yields a state dependent reward. The current states of arms are partially observable through binary feedback signals from arms that are played. The current availability of arms is fully observable. The objective is to maximize long term cumulative reward. The uncertainty about future availability of arms along with partial state information makes this objective challenging. This optimization problem is analyzed using Whittle's index policy. To this end, a constrained restless single-armed bandit is studied. It is shown to admit a threshold-type optimal policy, and is also indexable. An algorithm to compute Whittle's index is presented. Further, upper bounds on the value function are derived in order to estimate the degree of sub-optimality of various solutions. The simulation study compares the performance of Whittle's index, modified Whittle's index and myopic policies.