Restless Multi-Armed Bandits under Exogenous Global Markov Process

We consider an extension to the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown arm dynamics, where an unknown exogenous global Markov process governs the rewards distribution of each arm. Under each global state, the rewards process of each arm evolves according to an unknown Markovian rule, which is non-identical among different arms. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of N arms to play, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The arms are restless, that is, their local state evolves regardless of the player's actions. The objective is an arm-selection policy that minimizes the regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to a player that knows the dynamics of the problem, and plays at each time t the arm that maximizes the expected immediate value. We develop the Learning under Exogenous Markov Process (LEMP) algorithm, that achieves a logarithmic regret order with time, and a finite-sample bound on the regret is established. Simulation results support the theoretical study and demonstrate strong performances of LEMP.