Learning the Effective Dynamics of Complex Multiscale Systems

Simulations of complex multiscale systems are essential for science and technology ranging from weather forecasting to aircraft design. The predictive capabilities of simulations hinges on their capacity to capture the governing system dynamics. Large scale simulations, resolving all spatiotemporal scales, provide invaluable insight at a high computational cost. In turn, simulations using reduced order models are affordable but their veracity hinges often on linearisation and/or heuristics. Here we present a novel systematic framework to extract and forecast accurately the effective dynamics (LED) of complex systems with multiple spatio-temporal scales. The framework fuses advanced machine learning algorithms with equation-free approaches. It deploys autoencoders to obtain a mapping between fine and coarse grained representations of the system and learns to forecast the latent space dynamics using recurrent neural networks. We compare the LED framework with existing approaches on a number of benchmark problems and demonstrate reduction in computational efforts by several orders of magnitude without sacrificing the accuracy of the system.