FuXi-ENS: A machine learning model for medium-range ensemble weather forecasting

Ensemble weather forecasting is essential for weather predictions and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is highly computationally expensive. Machine learning (ML) models have emerged as valuable tools for deterministic weather forecasts, providing forecasts with significantly reduced computational requirements and even surpassing the forecast performance of traditional NWP models. However, challenges arise when applying ML models to ensemble forecasting. Recent ML models, such as GenCast and SEEDS model, rely on the ERA5 Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) or two operational NWP ensemble members for forecast generation. The spatial resolution of 1{\deg} or 2{\deg} in these models is often considered too coarse for many applications. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FuXi-ENS, an advanced ML model designed to deliver 6-hourly global ensemble weather forecasts up to 15 days. This model runs at a significantly improved spatial resolution of 0.25{\deg}, incorporating 5 upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels, along with 13 surface variables. By leveraging the inherent probabilistic nature of Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), FuXi-ENS optimizes a loss function that combines the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the KL divergence between the predicted and target distribution. This innovative approach represents an advancement over the traditional use of L1 loss combined with the KL loss in standard VAE models when VAE for ensemble weather forecasts. Evaluation results demonstrate that FuXi-ENS outperforms ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), a world leading NWP model, on 98.1% of 360 variable and forecast lead time combinations on CRPS.