Failure Modes of LLMs for Causal Reasoning on Narratives

In this work, we investigate the causal reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) through the representative problem of inferring causal relationships from narratives. We find that even state-of-the-art language models rely on unreliable shortcuts, both in terms of the narrative presentation and their parametric knowledge. For example, LLMs tend to determine causal relationships based on the topological ordering of events (i.e., earlier events cause later ones), resulting in lower performance whenever events are not narrated in their exact causal order. Similarly, we demonstrate that LLMs struggle with long-term causal reasoning and often fail when the narratives are long and contain many events. Additionally, we show LLMs appear to rely heavily on their parametric knowledge at the expense of reasoning over the provided narrative. This degrades their abilities whenever the narrative opposes parametric knowledge. We extensively validate these failure modes through carefully controlled synthetic experiments, as well as evaluations on real-world narratives. Finally, we observe that explicitly generating a causal graph generally improves performance while naive chain-of-thought is ineffective. Collectively, our results distill precise failure modes of current state-of-the-art models and can pave the way for future techniques to enhance causal reasoning in LLMs.