Disentangling Uncertainties by Learning Compressed Data Representation

We study aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation in a learned regressive system dynamics model. Disentangling aleatoric uncertainty (the inherent randomness of the system) from epistemic uncertainty (the lack of data) is crucial for downstream tasks such as risk-aware control and reinforcement learning, efficient exploration, and robust policy transfer. While existing approaches like Gaussian Processes, Bayesian networks, and model ensembles are widely adopted, they suffer from either high computational complexity or inaccurate uncertainty estimation. To address these limitations, we propose the Compressed Data Representation Model (CDRM), a framework that learns a neural network encoding of the data distribution and enables direct sampling from the output distribution. Our approach incorporates a novel inference procedure based on Langevin dynamics sampling, allowing CDRM to predict arbitrary output distributions rather than being constrained to a Gaussian prior. Theoretical analysis provides the conditions where CDRM achieves better memory and computational complexity compared to bin-based compression methods. Empirical evaluations show that CDRM demonstrates a superior capability to identify aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties separately, achieving AUROCs of 0.8876 and 0.9981 on a single test set containing a mixture of both uncertainties. Qualitative results further show that CDRM's capability extends to datasets with multimodal output distributions, a challenging scenario where existing methods consistently fail. Code and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/ryeii/CDRM.

Golden-Retriever: High-Fidelity Agentic Retrieval Augmented Generation for Industrial Knowledge Base

This paper introduces Golden-Retriever, designed to efficiently navigate vast industrial knowledge bases, overcoming challenges in traditional LLM fine-tuning and RAG frameworks with domain-specific jargon and context interpretation. Golden-Retriever incorporates a reflection-based question augmentation step before document retrieval, which involves identifying jargon, clarifying its meaning based on context, and augmenting the question accordingly. Specifically, our method extracts and lists all jargon and abbreviations in the input question, determines the context against a pre-defined list, and queries a jargon dictionary for extended definitions and descriptions. This comprehensive augmentation ensures the RAG framework retrieves the most relevant documents by providing clear context and resolving ambiguities, significantly improving retrieval accuracy. Evaluations using three open-source LLMs on a domain-specific question-answer dataset demonstrate Golden-Retriever's superior performance, providing a robust solution for efficiently integrating and querying industrial knowledge bases.

MARLP: Time-series Forecasting Control for Agricultural Managed Aquifer Recharge

The rapid decline in groundwater around the world poses a significant challenge to sustainable agriculture. To address this issue, agricultural managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR) is proposed to recharge the aquifer by artificially flooding agricultural lands using surface water. Ag-MAR requires a carefully selected flooding schedule to avoid affecting the oxygen absorption of crop roots. However, current Ag-MAR scheduling does not take into account complex environmental factors such as weather and soil oxygen, resulting in crop damage and insufficient recharging amounts. This paper proposes MARLP, the first end-to-end data-driven control system for Ag-MAR. We first formulate Ag-MAR as an optimization problem. To that end, we analyze four-year in-field datasets, which reveal the multi-periodicity feature of the soil oxygen level trends and the opportunity to use external weather forecasts and flooding proposals as exogenous clues for soil oxygen prediction. Then, we design a two-stage forecasting framework. In the first stage, it extracts both the cross-variate dependency and the periodic patterns from historical data to conduct preliminary forecasting. In the second stage, it uses weather-soil and flooding-soil causality to facilitate an accurate prediction of soil oxygen levels. Finally, we conduct model predictive control (MPC) for Ag-MAR flooding. To address the challenge of large action spaces, we devise a heuristic planning module to reduce the number of flooding proposals to enable the search for optimal solutions. Real-world experiments show that MARLP reduces the oxygen deficit ratio by 86.8% while improving the recharging amount in unit time by 35.8%, compared with the previous four years.

Go Beyond Black-box Policies: Rethinking the Design of Learning Agent for Interpretable and Verifiable HVAC Control

Recent research has shown the potential of Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) to enhance energy efficiency of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, existing methods rely on black-box thermal dynamics models and stochastic optimizers, lacking reliability guarantees and posing risks to occupant health. In this work, we overcome the reliability bottleneck by redesigning HVAC controllers using decision trees extracted from existing thermal dynamics models and historical data. Our decision tree-based policies are deterministic, verifiable, interpretable, and more energy-efficient than current MBRL methods. First, we introduce a novel verification criterion for RL agents in HVAC control based on domain knowledge. Second, we develop a policy extraction procedure that produces a verifiable decision tree policy. We found that the high dimensionality of the thermal dynamics model input hinders the efficiency of policy extraction. To tackle the dimensionality challenge, we leverage importance sampling conditioned on historical data distributions, significantly improving policy extraction efficiency. Lastly, we present an offline verification algorithm that guarantees the reliability of a control policy. Extensive experiments show that our method saves 68.4% more energy and increases human comfort gain by 14.8% compared to the state-of-the-art method, in addition to an 1127x reduction in computation overhead. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/ryeii/Veri_HVAC

Reward Bound for Behavioral Guarantee of Model-based Planning Agents

Recent years have seen an emerging interest in the trustworthiness of machine learning-based agents in the wild, especially in robotics, to provide safety assurance for the industry. Obtaining behavioral guarantees for these agents remains an important problem. In this work, we focus on guaranteeing a model-based planning agent reaches a goal state within a specific future time step. We show that there exists a lower bound for the reward at the goal state, such that if the said reward is below that bound, it is impossible to obtain such a guarantee. By extension, we show how to enforce preferences over multiple goals.