A Likelihood-Free Approach to Goal-Oriented Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design

Conventional Bayesian optimal experimental design seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) on model parameters. However, the end goal of the experiment often is not to learn the model parameters, but to predict downstream quantities of interest (QoIs) that depend on the learned parameters. And designs that offer high EIG for parameters may not translate to high EIG for QoIs. Goal-oriented optimal experimental design (GO-OED) thus directly targets to maximize the EIG of QoIs. We introduce LF-GO-OED (likelihood-free goal-oriented optimal experimental design), a computational method for conducting GO-OED with nonlinear observation and prediction models. LF-GO-OED is specifically designed to accommodate implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable. In particular, it builds a density ratio estimator from samples generated from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), thereby sidestepping the need for likelihood evaluations or density estimations. The overall method is validated on benchmark problems with existing methods, and demonstrated on scientific applications of epidemiology and neural science.

Goal-Oriented Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Nonlinear Models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Optimal experimental design (OED) provides a systematic approach to quantify and maximize the value of experimental data. Under a Bayesian approach, conventional OED maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) on model parameters. However, we are often interested in not the parameters themselves, but predictive quantities of interest (QoIs) that depend on the parameters in a nonlinear manner. We present a computational framework of predictive goal-oriented OED (GO-OED) suitable for nonlinear observation and prediction models, which seeks the experimental design providing the greatest EIG on the QoIs. In particular, we propose a nested Monte Carlo estimator for the QoI EIG, featuring Markov chain Monte Carlo for posterior sampling and kernel density estimation for evaluating the posterior-predictive density and its Kullback-Leibler divergence from the prior-predictive. The GO-OED design is then found by maximizing the EIG over the design space using Bayesian optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the overall nonlinear GO-OED method, and illustrate its differences versus conventional non-GO-OED, through various test problems and an application of sensor placement for source inversion in a convection-diffusion field.

Learning a quantum computer's capability using convolutional neural networks

The computational power of contemporary quantum processors is limited by hardware errors that cause computations to fail. In principle, each quantum processor's computational capabilities can be described with a capability function that quantifies how well a processor can run each possible quantum circuit (i.e., program), as a map from circuits to the processor's success rates on those circuits. However, capability functions are typically unknown and challenging to model, as the particular errors afflicting a specific quantum processor are a priori unknown and difficult to completely characterize. In this work, we investigate using artificial neural networks to learn an approximation to a processor's capability function. We explore how to define the capability function, and we explain how data for training neural networks can be efficiently obtained for a capability function defined using process fidelity. We then investigate using convolutional neural networks to model a quantum computer's capability. Using simulations, we show that convolutional neural networks can accurately model a processor's capability when that processor experiences gate-dependent, time-dependent, and context-dependent stochastic errors. We then discuss some challenges to creating useful neural network capability models for experimental processors, such as generalizing beyond training distributions and modelling the effects of coherent errors. Lastly, we apply our neural networks to model the capabilities of cloud-access quantum computing systems, obtaining moderate prediction accuracy (average absolute error around 2-5%).