Non-linear Phillips Curve for India: Evidence from Explainable Machine Learning

The conventional linear Phillips curve model, while widely used in policymaking, often struggles to deliver accurate forecasts in the presence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities. This paper addresses these limitations by leveraging machine learning methods within a New Keynesian Phillips Curve framework to forecast and explain headline inflation in India, a major emerging economy. Our analysis demonstrates that machine learning-based approaches significantly outperform standard linear models in forecasting accuracy. Moreover, by employing explainable machine learning techniques, we reveal that the Phillips curve relationship in India is highly nonlinear, characterized by thresholds and interaction effects among key variables. Headline inflation is primarily driven by inflation expectations, followed by past inflation and the output gap, while supply shocks, except rainfall, exert only a marginal influence. These findings highlight the ability of machine learning models to improve forecast accuracy and uncover complex, nonlinear dynamics in inflation data, offering valuable insights for policymakers.

Empowering recommender systems using automatically generated Knowledge Graphs and Reinforcement Learning

Personalized recommendations have a growing importance in direct marketing, which motivates research to enhance customer experiences by knowledge graph (KG) applications. For example, in financial services, companies may benefit from providing relevant financial articles to their customers to cultivate relationships, foster client engagement and promote informed financial decisions. While several approaches center on KG-based recommender systems for improved content, in this study we focus on interpretable KG-based recommender systems for decision making.To this end, we present two knowledge graph-based approaches for personalized article recommendations for a set of customers of a large multinational financial services company. The first approach employs Reinforcement Learning and the second approach uses the XGBoost algorithm for recommending articles to the customers. Both approaches make use of a KG generated from both structured (tabular data) and unstructured data (a large body of text data).Using the Reinforcement Learning-based recommender system we could leverage the graph traversal path leading to the recommendation as a way to generate interpretations (Path Directed Reasoning (PDR)). In the XGBoost-based approach, one can also provide explainable results using post-hoc methods such as SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and ELI5 (Explain Like I am Five).Importantly, our approach offers explainable results, promoting better decision-making. This study underscores the potential of combining advanced machine learning techniques with KG-driven insights to bolster experience in customer relationship management.