BayesNAM: Leveraging Inconsistency for Reliable Explanations

Neural additive model (NAM) is a recently proposed explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) method that utilizes neural network-based architectures. Given the advantages of neural networks, NAMs provide intuitive explanations for their predictions with high model performance. In this paper, we analyze a critical yet overlooked phenomenon: NAMs often produce inconsistent explanations, even when using the same architecture and dataset. Traditionally, such inconsistencies have been viewed as issues to be resolved. However, we argue instead that these inconsistencies can provide valuable explanations within the given data model. Through a simple theoretical framework, we demonstrate that these inconsistencies are not mere artifacts but emerge naturally in datasets with multiple important features. To effectively leverage this information, we introduce a novel framework, Bayesian Neural Additive Model (BayesNAM), which integrates Bayesian neural networks and feature dropout, with theoretical proof demonstrating that feature dropout effectively captures model inconsistencies. Our experiments demonstrate that BayesNAM effectively reveals potential problems such as insufficient data or structural limitations of the model, providing more reliable explanations and potential remedies.

Leveraging Priors via Diffusion Bridge for Time Series Generation

Time series generation is widely used in real-world applications such as simulation, data augmentation, and hypothesis test techniques. Recently, diffusion models have emerged as the de facto approach for time series generation, emphasizing diverse synthesis scenarios based on historical or correlated time series data streams. Since time series have unique characteristics, such as fixed time order and data scaling, standard Gaussian prior might be ill-suited for general time series generation. In this paper, we exploit the usage of diverse prior distributions for synthesis. Then, we propose TimeBridge, a framework that enables flexible synthesis by leveraging diffusion bridges to learn the transport between chosen prior and data distributions. Our model covers a wide range of scenarios in time series diffusion models, which leverages (i) data- and time-dependent priors for unconditional synthesis, and (ii) data-scale preserving synthesis with a constraint as a prior for conditional generation. Experimentally, our model achieves state-of-the-art performance in both unconditional and conditional time series generation tasks.