On the Temperature of Bayesian Graph Neural Networks for Conformal Prediction

Accurate uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks (GNNs) is essential, especially in high-stakes domains where GNNs are frequently employed. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty by providing $\textit{valid}$ prediction sets for any black-box model. CP ensures formal probabilistic guarantees that a prediction set contains a true label with a desired probability. However, the size of prediction sets, known as $\textit{inefficiency}$, is influenced by the underlying model and data generating process. On the other hand, Bayesian learning also provides a credible region based on the estimated posterior distribution, but this region is $\textit{well-calibrated}$ only when the model is correctly specified. Building on a recent work that introduced a scaling parameter for constructing valid credible regions from posterior estimate, our study explores the advantages of incorporating a temperature parameter into Bayesian GNNs within CP framework. We empirically demonstrate the existence of temperatures that result in more efficient prediction sets. Furthermore, we conduct an analysis to identify the factors contributing to inefficiency and offer valuable insights into the relationship between CP performance and model calibration.

NeFL: Nested Federated Learning for Heterogeneous Clients

Federated learning (FL) is a promising approach in distributed learning keeping privacy. However, during the training pipeline of FL, slow or incapable clients (i.e., stragglers) slow down the total training time and degrade performance. System heterogeneity, including heterogeneous computing and network bandwidth, has been addressed to mitigate the impact of stragglers. Previous studies split models to tackle the issue, but with less degree-of-freedom in terms of model architecture. We propose nested federated learning (NeFL), a generalized framework that efficiently divides a model into submodels using both depthwise and widthwise scaling. NeFL is implemented by interpreting models as solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with adaptive step sizes. To address the inconsistency that arises when training multiple submodels with different architecture, we decouple a few parameters. NeFL enables resource-constrained clients to effectively join the FL pipeline and the model to be trained with a larger amount of data. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate that NeFL leads to significant gains, especially for the worst-case submodel (e.g., 8.33 improvement on CIFAR-10). Furthermore, we demonstrate NeFL aligns with recent studies in FL.