Modelling Grocery Retail Topic Distributions: Evaluation, Interpretability and Stability

Understanding the shopping motivations behind market baskets has high commercial value in the grocery retail industry. Analyzing shopping transactions demands techniques that can cope with the volume and dimensionality of grocery transactional data while keeping interpretable outcomes. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) provides a suitable framework to process grocery transactions and to discover a broad representation of customers' shopping motivations. However, summarizing the posterior distribution of an LDA model is challenging, while individual LDA draws may not be coherent and cannot capture topic uncertainty. Moreover, the evaluation of LDA models is dominated by model-fit measures which may not adequately capture the qualitative aspects such as interpretability and stability of topics. In this paper, we introduce clustering methodology that post-processes posterior LDA draws to summarise the entire posterior distribution and identify semantic modes represented as recurrent topics. Our approach is an alternative to standard label-switching techniques and provides a single posterior summary set of topics, as well as associated measures of uncertainty. Furthermore, we establish a more holistic definition for model evaluation, which assesses topic models based not only on their likelihood but also on their coherence, distinctiveness and stability. By means of a survey, we set thresholds for the interpretation of topic coherence and topic similarity in the domain of grocery retail data. We demonstrate that the selection of recurrent topics through our clustering methodology not only improves model likelihood but also outperforms the qualitative aspects of LDA such as interpretability and stability. We illustrate our methods on an example from a large UK supermarket chain.

Conceptual Organization is Revealed by Consumer Activity Patterns

Meaning may arise from an element's role or interactions within a larger system. For example, hitting nails is more central to people's concept of a hammer than its particular material composition or other intrinsic features. Likewise, the importance of a web page may result from its links with other pages rather than solely from its content. One example of meaning arising from extrinsic relationships are approaches that extract the meaning of word concepts from co-occurrence patterns in large, text corpora. The success of these methods suggest that human activity patterns may reveal conceptual organization. However, texts do not directly reflect human activity, but instead serve a communicative function and are usually highly curated or edited to suit an audience. Here, we apply methods devised for text to a data source that directly reflects thousands of individuals' activity patterns, namely supermarket purchases. Using product co-occurrence data from nearly 1.3m shopping baskets, we trained a topic model to learn 25 high-level concepts (or "topics"). These topics were found to be comprehensible and coherent by both retail experts and consumers. Topics ranged from specific (e.g., ingredients for a stir-fry) to general (e.g., cooking from scratch). Topics tended to be goal-directed and situational, consistent with the notion that human conceptual knowledge is tailored to support action. Individual differences in the topics sampled predicted basic demographic characteristics. These results suggest that human activity patterns reveal conceptual organization and may give rise to it.