Interpretable Tabular Foundation Models via In-Context Kernel Regression

Tabular foundation models like TabPFN and TabICL achieve state-of-the-art performance through in-context learning, yet their architectures remain fundamentally opaque. We introduce KernelICL, a framework to enhance tabular foundation models with quantifiable sample-based interpretability. Building on the insight that in-context learning is akin to kernel regression, we make this mechanism explicit by replacing the final prediction layer with kernel functions (Gaussian, dot-product, kNN) so that every prediction is a transparent weighted average of training labels. We introduce a two-dimensional taxonomy that formally unifies standard kernel methods, modern neighbor-based approaches, and attention mechanisms under a single framework, and quantify inspectability via the perplexity of the weight distribution over training samples. On 55 TALENT benchmark datasets, KernelICL achieves performance on par with existing tabular foundation models, demonstrating that explicit kernel constraints on the final layer enable inspectable predictions without sacrificing performance.

EarlyStopping: Implicit Regularization for Iterative Learning Procedures in Python

Iterative learning procedures are ubiquitous in machine learning and modern statistics. Regularision is typically required to prevent inflating the expected loss of a procedure in later iterations via the propagation of noise inherent in the data. Significant emphasis has been placed on achieving this regularisation implicitly by stopping procedures early. The EarlyStopping-package provides a toolbox of (in-sample) sequential early stopping rules for several well-known iterative estimation procedures, such as truncated SVD, Landweber (gradient descent), conjugate gradient descent, L2-boosting and regression trees. One of the central features of the package is that the algorithms allow the specification of the true data-generating process and keep track of relevant theoretical quantities. In this paper, we detail the principles governing the implementation of the EarlyStopping-package and provide a survey of recent foundational advances in the theoretical literature. We demonstrate how to use the EarlyStopping-package to explore core features of implicit regularisation and replicate results from the literature.

Shapley Curves: A Smoothing Perspective

Originating from cooperative game theory, Shapley values have become one of the most widely used measures for variable importance in applied Machine Learning. However, the statistical understanding of Shapley values is still limited. In this paper, we take a nonparametric (or smoothing) perspective by introducing Shapley curves as a local measure of variable importance. We propose two estimation strategies and derive the consistency and asymptotic normality both under independence and dependence among the features. This allows us to construct confidence intervals and conduct inference on the estimated Shapley curves. The asymptotic results are validated in extensive experiments. In an empirical application, we analyze which attributes drive the prices of vehicles.