Identifying Key Drivers of Heatwaves: A Novel Spatio-Temporal Framework for Extreme Event Detection

Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme atmospheric events that produce significant societal and environmental impacts. Predicting these extreme events remains challenging, as their complex interactions with large-scale atmospheric and climatic variables are difficult to capture with traditional statistical and dynamical models. This work presents a general method for driver identification in extreme climate events. A novel framework (STCO-FS) is proposed to identify key immediate (short-term) HW drivers by combining clustering algorithms with an ensemble evolutionary algorithm. The framework analyzes spatio-temporal data, reduces dimensionality by grouping similar geographical nodes for each variable, and develops driver selection in spatial and temporal domains, identifying the best time lags between predictive variables and HW occurrences. The proposed method has been applied to analyze HWs in the Adda river basin in Italy. The approach effectively identifies significant variables influencing HWs in this region. This research can potentially enhance our understanding of HW drivers and predictability.

dlordinal: a Python package for deep ordinal classification

dlordinal is a new Python library that unifies many recent deep ordinal classification methodologies available in the literature. Developed using PyTorch as underlying framework, it implements the top performing state-of-the-art deep learning techniques for ordinal classification problems. Ordinal approaches are designed to leverage the ordering information present in the target variable. Specifically, it includes loss functions, various output layers, dropout techniques, soft labelling methodologies, and other classification strategies, all of which are appropriately designed to incorporate the ordinal information. Furthermore, as the performance metrics to assess novel proposals in ordinal classification depend on the distance between target and predicted classes in the ordinal scale, suitable ordinal evaluation metrics are also included. dlordinal is distributed under the BSD-3-Clause license and is available at https://github.com/ayrna/dlordinal.