Boosting-Based Sequential Meta-Tree Ensemble Construction for Improved Decision Trees

A decision tree is one of the most popular approaches in machine learning fields. However, it suffers from the problem of overfitting caused by overly deepened trees. Then, a meta-tree is recently proposed. It solves the problem of overfitting caused by overly deepened trees. Moreover, the meta-tree guarantees statistical optimality based on Bayes decision theory. Therefore, the meta-tree is expected to perform better than the decision tree. In contrast to a single decision tree, it is known that ensembles of decision trees, which are typically constructed boosting algorithms, are more effective in improving predictive performance. Thus, it is expected that ensembles of meta-trees are more effective in improving predictive performance than a single meta-tree, and there are no previous studies that construct multiple meta-trees in boosting. Therefore, in this study, we propose a method to construct multiple meta-trees using a boosting approach. Through experiments with synthetic and benchmark datasets, we conduct a performance comparison between the proposed methods and the conventional methods using ensembles of decision trees. Furthermore, while ensembles of decision trees can cause overfitting as well as a single decision tree, experiments confirmed that ensembles of meta-trees can prevent overfitting due to the tree depth.

An Algorithmic Framework for Constructing Multiple Decision Trees by Evaluating Their Combination Performance Throughout the Construction Process

Predictions using a combination of decision trees are known to be effective in machine learning. Typical ideas for constructing a combination of decision trees for prediction are bagging and boosting. Bagging independently constructs decision trees without evaluating their combination performance and averages them afterward. Boosting constructs decision trees sequentially, only evaluating a combination performance of a new decision tree and the fixed past decision trees at each step. Therefore, neither method directly constructs nor evaluates a combination of decision trees for the final prediction. When the final prediction is based on a combination of decision trees, it is natural to evaluate the appropriateness of the combination when constructing them. In this study, we propose a new algorithmic framework that constructs decision trees simultaneously and evaluates their combination performance throughout the construction process. Our framework repeats two procedures. In the first procedure, we construct new candidates of combinations of decision trees to find a proper combination of decision trees. In the second procedure, we evaluate each combination performance of decision trees under some criteria and select a better combination. To confirm the performance of the proposed framework, we perform experiments on synthetic and benchmark data.

Prediction Algorithms Achieving Bayesian Decision Theoretical Optimality Based on Decision Trees as Data Observation Processes

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.