Multi-Source Temporal Attention Network for Precipitation Nowcasting

Precipitation nowcasting is crucial across various industries and plays a significant role in mitigating and adapting to climate change. We introduce an efficient deep learning model for precipitation nowcasting, capable of predicting rainfall up to 8 hours in advance with greater accuracy than existing operational physics-based and extrapolation-based models. Our model leverages multi-source meteorological data and physics-based forecasts to deliver high-resolution predictions in both time and space. It captures complex spatio-temporal dynamics through temporal attention networks and is optimized using data quality maps and dynamic thresholds. Experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art, and highlight its potential for fast reliable responses to evolving weather conditions.

RainAI -- Precipitation Nowcasting from Satellite Data

This paper presents a solution to the Weather4Cast 2023 competition, where the goal is to forecast high-resolution precipitation with an 8-hour lead time using lower-resolution satellite radiance images. We propose a simple, yet effective method for spatiotemporal feature learning using a 2D U-Net model, that outperforms the official 3D U-Net baseline in both performance and efficiency. We place emphasis on refining the dataset, through importance sampling and dataset preparation, and show that such techniques have a significant impact on performance. We further study an alternative cross-entropy loss function that improves performance over the standard mean squared error loss, while also enabling models to produce probabilistic outputs. Additional techniques are explored regarding the generation of predictions at different lead times, specifically through Conditioning Lead Time. Lastly, to generate high-resolution forecasts, we evaluate standard and learned upsampling methods. The code and trained parameters are available at https://github.com/rafapablos/w4c23-rainai.