Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

In this work, we develop a method for uncertainty quantification in deep operator networks (DeepONets) using predictive uncertainty estimates calibrated to model errors observed during training. The uncertainty framework operates using a single network, in contrast to existing ensemble approaches, and introduces minimal overhead during training and inference. We also introduce an optimized implementation for DeepONet inference (reducing evaluation times by a factor of five) to provide models well-suited for real-time applications. We evaluate the uncertainty-equipped models on a series of partial differential equation (PDE) problems, and show that the model predictions are unbiased, non-skewed, and accurately reproduce solutions to the PDEs. To assess how well the models generalize, we evaluate the network predictions and uncertainty estimates on in-distribution and out-of-distribution test datasets. We find the predictive uncertainties accurately reflect the observed model errors over a range of problems with varying complexity; simpler out-of-distribution examples are assigned low uncertainty estimates, consistent with the observed errors, while more complex out-of-distribution examples are properly assigned higher uncertainties. We also provide a statistical analysis of the predictive uncertainties and verify that these estimates are well-aligned with the observed error distributions at the tail-end of training. Finally, we demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used within an active learning framework to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures.

Systems Biology: Identifiability analysis and parameter identification via systems-biology informed neural networks

The dynamics of systems biological processes are usually modeled by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with many unknown parameters that need to be inferred from noisy and sparse measurements. Here, we introduce systems-biology informed neural networks for parameter estimation by incorporating the system of ODEs into the neural networks. To complete the workflow of system identification, we also describe structural and practical identifiability analysis to analyze the identifiability of parameters. We use the ultridian endocrine model for glucose-insulin interaction as the example to demonstrate all these methods and their implementation.