Generating Likely Counterfactuals Using Sum-Product Networks

Due to user demand and recent regulation (GDPR, AI Act), decisions made by AI systems need to be explained. These decisions are often explainable only post hoc, where counterfactual explanations are popular. The question of what constitutes the best counterfactual explanation must consider multiple aspects, where "distance from the sample" is the most common. We argue that this requirement frequently leads to explanations that are unlikely and, therefore, of limited value. Here, we present a system that provides high-likelihood explanations. We show that the search for the most likely explanations satisfying many common desiderata for counterfactual explanations can be modeled using mixed-integer optimization (MIO). In the process, we propose an MIO formulation of a Sum-Product Network (SPN) and use the SPN to estimate the likelihood of a counterfactual, which can be of independent interest. A numerical comparison against several methods for generating counterfactual explanations is provided.

Improving the Validity of Decision Trees as Explanations

In classification and forecasting with tabular data, one often utilizes tree-based models. This can be competitive with deep neural networks on tabular data [cf. Grinsztajn et al., NeurIPS 2022, arXiv:2207.08815] and, under some conditions, explainable. The explainability depends on the depth of the tree and the accuracy in each leaf of the tree. Here, we train a low-depth tree with the objective of minimising the maximum misclassification error across each leaf node, and then ``suspend'' further tree-based models (e.g., trees of unlimited depth) from each leaf of the low-depth tree. The low-depth tree is easily explainable, while the overall statistical performance of the combined low-depth and suspended tree-based models improves upon decision trees of unlimited depth trained using classical methods (e.g., CART) and is comparable to state-of-the-art methods (e.g., well-tuned XGBoost).