ConfliBERT: A Language Model for Political Conflict

Conflict scholars have used rule-based approaches to extract information about political violence from news reports and texts. Recent Natural Language Processing developments move beyond rigid rule-based approaches. We review our recent ConfliBERT language model (Hu et al. 2022) to process political and violence related texts. The model can be used to extract actor and action classifications from texts about political conflict. When fine-tuned, results show that ConfliBERT has superior performance in accuracy, precision and recall over other large language models (LLM) like Google's Gemma 2 (9B), Meta's Llama 3.1 (7B), and Alibaba's Qwen 2.5 (14B) within its relevant domains. It is also hundreds of times faster than these more generalist LLMs. These results are illustrated using texts from the BBC, re3d, and the Global Terrorism Dataset (GTD).

Synthesizing Political Zero-Shot Relation Classification via Codebook Knowledge, NLI, and ChatGPT

Recent supervised models for event coding vastly outperform pattern-matching methods. However, their reliance solely on new annotations disregards the vast knowledge within expert databases, hindering their applicability to fine-grained classification. To address these limitations, we explore zero-shot approaches for political event ontology relation classification, by leveraging knowledge from established annotation codebooks. Our study encompasses both ChatGPT and a novel natural language inference (NLI) based approach named ZSP. ZSP adopts a tree-query framework that deconstructs the task into context, modality, and class disambiguation levels. This framework improves interpretability, efficiency, and adaptability to schema changes. By conducting extensive experiments on our newly curated datasets, we pinpoint the instability issues within ChatGPT and highlight the superior performance of ZSP. ZSP achieves an impressive 40% improvement in F1 score for fine-grained Rootcode classification. ZSP demonstrates competitive performance compared to supervised BERT models, positioning it as a valuable tool for event record validation and ontology development. Our work underscores the potential of leveraging transfer learning and existing expertise to enhance the efficiency and scalability of research in the field.