Enhancing Wind Speed and Wind Power Forecasting Using Shape-Wise Feature Engineering: A Novel Approach for Improved Accuracy and Robustness

Accurate prediction of wind speed and power is vital for enhancing the efficiency of wind energy systems. Numerous solutions have been implemented to date, demonstrating their potential to improve forecasting. Among these, deep learning is perceived as a revolutionary approach in the field. However, despite their effectiveness, the noise present in the collected data remains a significant challenge. This noise has the potential to diminish the performance of these algorithms, leading to inaccurate predictions. In response to this, this study explores a novel feature engineering approach. This approach involves altering the data input shape in both Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) and Autoregressive models for various forecasting horizons. The results reveal substantial enhancements in model resilience against noise resulting from step increases in data. The approach could achieve an impressive 83% accuracy in predicting unseen data up to the 24th steps. Furthermore, this method consistently provides high accuracy for short, mid, and long-term forecasts, outperforming the performance of individual models. These findings pave the way for further research on noise reduction strategies at different forecasting horizons through shape-wise feature engineering.

Temporal Analysis of World Disaster Risk:A Machine Learning Approach to Cluster Dynamics

he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the probability of improvement over a specific short period of time. Using the World Risk Index, we conduct a temporal analysis of global disaster risk dynamics from 2011 to 2021. This temporal exploration through the lens of the World Risk Index provides insights into the complex dynamics of disaster risk. We found that, despite sustained efforts, the global landscape remains divided into two main clusters: high susceptibility and moderate susceptibility, regardless of geographical location. This clustering was achieved using a semi-supervised approach through the Label Spreading algorithm, with 98% accuracy. We also found that the prediction of clusters achieved through supervised learning on the period considered in this study (one, three, and five years) showed that the Logistic regression (almost 99% at each stage) performed better than other classifiers. This suggests that the current policies and mechanisms are not effective in helping countries move from a hazardous position to a safer one during the period considered. In fact, statistical projections using a scenario analysis indicate that there is only a 1% chance of such a shift occurring within a five-year timeframe. This sobering reality highlights the need for a paradigm shift. Traditional long-term disaster management strategies are not effective for countries that are highly vulnerable. Our findings indicate the need for an innovative approach that is tailored to the specific vulnerabilities of these nations. As the threat of vulnerability persists, our research calls for the development of new strategies that can effectively address the ongoing challenges of disaster risk management

Air Quality Forecasting Using Machine Learning: A Global perspective with Relevance to Low-Resource Settings

Air pollution stands as the fourth leading cause of death globally. While extensive research has been conducted in this domain, most approaches rely on large datasets when it comes to prediction. This limits their applicability in low-resource settings though more vulnerable. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel machine learning approach for accurate air quality prediction using two months of air quality data. By leveraging the World Weather Repository, the meteorological, air pollutant, and Air Quality Index features from 197 capital cities were considered to predict air quality for the next day. The evaluation of several machine learning models demonstrates the effectiveness of the Random Forest algorithm in generating reliable predictions, particularly when applied to classification rather than regression, approach which enhances the model's generalizability by 42%, achieving a cross-validation score of 0.38 for regression and 0.89 for classification. To instill confidence in the predictions, interpretable machine learning was considered. Finally, a cost estimation comparing the implementation of this solution in high-resource and low-resource settings is presented including a tentative of technology licensing business model. This research highlights the potential for resource-limited countries to independently predict air quality while awaiting larger datasets to further refine their predictions.

Enhancing Acute Kidney Injury Prediction through Integration of Drug Features in Intensive Care Units

The relationship between acute kidney injury (AKI) prediction and nephrotoxic drugs, or drugs that adversely affect kidney function, is one that has yet to be explored in the critical care setting. One contributing factor to this gap in research is the limited investigation of drug modalities in the intensive care unit (ICU) context, due to the challenges of processing prescription data into the corresponding drug representations and a lack in the comprehensive understanding of these drug representations. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel approach that leverages patient prescription data as a modality to improve existing models for AKI prediction. We base our research on Electronic Health Record (EHR) data, extracting the relevant patient prescription information and converting it into the selected drug representation for our research, the extended-connectivity fingerprint (ECFP). Furthermore, we adopt a unique multimodal approach, developing machine learning models and 1D Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) applied to clinical drug representations, establishing a procedure which has not been used by any previous studies predicting AKI. The findings showcase a notable improvement in AKI prediction through the integration of drug embeddings and other patient cohort features. By using drug features represented as ECFP molecular fingerprints along with common cohort features such as demographics and lab test values, we achieved a considerable improvement in model performance for the AKI prediction task over the baseline model which does not include the drug representations as features, indicating that our distinct approach enhances existing baseline techniques and highlights the relevance of drug data in predicting AKI in the ICU setting