QUCE: The Minimisation and Quantification of Path-Based Uncertainty for Generative Counterfactual Explanations

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) stand out as one of the most prominent approaches within the Machine Learning (ML) domain. The efficacy of DNNs has surged alongside recent increases in computational capacity, allowing these approaches to scale to significant complexities for addressing predictive challenges in big data. However, as the complexity of DNN models rises, interpretability diminishes. In response to this challenge, explainable models such as Adversarial Gradient Integration (AGI) leverage path-based gradients provided by DNNs to elucidate their decisions. Yet the performance of path-based explainers can be compromised when gradients exhibit irregularities during out-of-distribution path traversal. In this context, we introduce Quantified Uncertainty Counterfactual Explanations (QUCE), a method designed to mitigate out-of-distribution traversal by minimizing path uncertainty. QUCE not only quantifies uncertainty when presenting explanations but also generates more certain counterfactual examples. We showcase the performance of the QUCE method by comparing it with competing methods for both path-based explanations and generative counterfactual examples. The code repository for the QUCE method is available at: https://github.com/jamie-duell/QUCE.

Stock Price Predictability and the Business Cycle via Machine Learning

We study the impacts of business cycles on machine learning (ML) predictions. Using the S&P 500 index, we find that ML models perform worse during most recessions, and the inclusion of recession history or the risk-free rate does not necessarily improve their performance. Investigating recessions where models perform well, we find that they exhibit lower market volatility than other recessions. This implies that the improved performance is not due to the merit of ML methods but rather factors such as effective monetary policies that stabilized the market. We recommend that ML practitioners evaluate their models during both recessions and expansions.