Detecting structural perturbations from time series with deep learning

Small disturbances can trigger functional breakdowns in complex systems. A challenging task is to infer the structural cause of a disturbance in a networked system, soon enough to prevent a catastrophe. We present a graph neural network approach, borrowed from the deep learning paradigm, to infer structural perturbations from functional time series. We show our data-driven approach outperforms typical reconstruction methods while meeting the accuracy of Bayesian inference. We validate the versatility and performance of our approach with epidemic spreading, population dynamics, and neural dynamics, on various network structures: random networks, scale-free networks, 25 real food-web systems, and the C. Elegans connectome. Moreover, we report that our approach is robust to data corruption. This work uncovers a practical avenue to study the resilience of real-world complex systems.

Universality of the stochastic block model

Mesoscopic pattern extraction (MPE) is the problem of finding a partition of the nodes of a complex network that maximizes some objective function. Many well-known network inference problems fall in this category, including, for instance, community detection, core-periphery identification, and imperfect graph coloring. In this paper, we show that the most popular algorithms designed to solve MPE problems can in fact be understood as special cases of the maximum likelihood formulation of the stochastic block model (SBM), or one of its direct generalizations. These equivalence relations show that the SBM is nearly universal with respect to MPE problems.

Network archaeology: phase transition in the recoverability of network history

Network growth processes can be understood as generative models of the structure and history of complex networks. This point of view naturally leads to the problem of network archaeology: Reconstructing all the past states of a network from its structure---a difficult permutation inference problem. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian formulation of network archaeology, with a generalization of preferential attachment as our generative mechanism. We develop a sequential importance sampling algorithm to evaluate the posterior averages of this model, as well as an efficient heuristic that uncovers the history of a network in linear time. We use these methods to identify and characterize a phase transition in the quality of the reconstructed history, when they are applied to artificial networks generated by the model itself. Despite the existence of a no-recovery phase, we find that non-trivial inference is possible in a large portion of the parameter space as well as on empirical data.