Identifying Three-Dimensional Radiative Patterns Associated with Early Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Cloud radiative feedback impacts early tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, but limitations in existing diagnostic frameworks make them unsuitable for studying asymmetric or transient radiative heating. We propose a linear Variational Encoder-Decoder (VED) to learn the hidden relationship between radiation and the surface intensification of realistic simulated TCs. Limiting VED model inputs enables using its uncertainty to identify periods when radiation has more importance for intensification. A close examination of the extracted 3D radiative structures suggests that longwave radiative forcing from inner core deep convection and shallow clouds both contribute to intensification, with the deep convection having the most impact overall. We find that deep convection downwind of the shallow clouds is critical to the intensification of Haiyan. Our work demonstrates that machine learning can discover thermodynamic-kinematic relationships without relying on axisymmetric or deterministic assumptions, paving the way towards the objective discovery of processes leading to TC intensification in realistic conditions.

Selecting Robust Features for Machine Learning Applications using Multidata Causal Discovery

Robust feature selection is vital for creating reliable and interpretable Machine Learning (ML) models. When designing statistical prediction models in cases where domain knowledge is limited and underlying interactions are unknown, choosing the optimal set of features is often difficult. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a Multidata (M) causal feature selection approach that simultaneously processes an ensemble of time series datasets and produces a single set of causal drivers. This approach uses the causal discovery algorithms PC1 or PCMCI that are implemented in the Tigramite Python package. These algorithms utilize conditional independence tests to infer parts of the causal graph. Our causal feature selection approach filters out causally-spurious links before passing the remaining causal features as inputs to ML models (Multiple linear regression, Random Forest) that predict the targets. We apply our framework to the statistical intensity prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones (TC), for which it is often difficult to accurately choose drivers and their dimensionality reduction (time lags, vertical levels, and area-averaging). Using more stringent significance thresholds in the conditional independence tests helps eliminate spurious causal relationships, thus helping the ML model generalize better to unseen TC cases. M-PC1 with a reduced number of features outperforms M-PCMCI, non-causal ML, and other feature selection methods (lagged correlation, random), even slightly outperforming feature selection based on eXplainable Artificial Intelligence. The optimal causal drivers obtained from our causal feature selection help improve our understanding of underlying relationships and suggest new potential drivers of TC intensification.