Comparing Fairness of Generative Mobility Models

This work examines the fairness of generative mobility models, addressing the often overlooked dimension of equity in model performance across geographic regions. Predictive models built on crowd flow data are instrumental in understanding urban structures and movement patterns; however, they risk embedding biases, particularly in spatiotemporal contexts where model performance may reflect and reinforce existing inequities tied to geographic distribution. We propose a novel framework for assessing fairness by measuring the utility and equity of generated traces. Utility is assessed via the Common Part of Commuters (CPC), a similarity metric comparing generated and real mobility flows, while fairness is evaluated using demographic parity. By reformulating demographic parity to reflect the difference in CPC distribution between two groups, our analysis reveals disparities in how various models encode biases present in the underlying data. We utilized four models (Gravity, Radiation, Deep Gravity, and Non-linear Gravity) and our results indicate that traditional gravity and radiation models produce fairer outcomes, although Deep Gravity achieves higher CPC. This disparity underscores a trade-off between model accuracy and equity, with the feature-rich Deep Gravity model amplifying pre-existing biases in community representations. Our findings emphasize the importance of integrating fairness metrics in mobility modeling to avoid perpetuating inequities.

Event detection from novel data sources: Leveraging satellite imagery alongside GPS traces

Rapid identification and response to breaking events, particularly those that pose a threat to human life such as natural disasters or conflicts, is of paramount importance. The prevalence of mobile devices and the ubiquity of network connectivity has generated a massive amount of temporally- and spatially-stamped data. Numerous studies have used mobile data to derive individual human mobility patterns for various applications. Similarly, the increasing number of orbital satellites has made it easier to gather high-resolution images capturing a snapshot of a geographical area in sub-daily temporal frequency. We propose a novel data fusion methodology integrating satellite imagery with privacy-enhanced mobile data to augment the event inference task, whether in real-time or historical. In the absence of boots on the ground, mobile data is able to give an approximation of human mobility, proximity to one another, and the built environment. On the other hand, satellite imagery can provide visual information on physical changes to the built and natural environment. The expected use cases for our methodology include small-scale disaster detection (i.e., tornadoes, wildfires, and floods) in rural regions, search and rescue operation augmentation for lost hikers in remote wilderness areas, and identification of active conflict areas and population displacement in war-torn states. Our implementation is open-source on GitHub: https://github.com/ekinugurel/SatMobFusion.

Time-Varying Transition Matrices with Multi-task Gaussian Processes

In this paper, we present a kernel-based, multi-task Gaussian Process (GP) model for approximating the underlying function of an individual's mobility state using a time-inhomogeneous Markov Process with two states: moves and pauses. Our approach accounts for the correlations between the transition probabilities by creating a covariance matrix over the tasks. We also introduce time-variability by assuming that an individual's transition probabilities vary over time in response to exogenous variables. We enforce the stochasticity and non-negativity constraints of probabilities in a Markov process through the incorporation of a set of constraint points in the GP. We also discuss opportunities to speed up GP estimation and inference in this context by exploiting Toeplitz and Kronecker product structures. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the ability of our formulation to enforce the desired constraints while learning the functional form of transition probabilities.