Optimal Causal Inference: Estimating Stored Information and Approximating Causal Architecture

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate distortion theory to use causal shielding---a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that, in the limit in which a model complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid over-fitting.

Synchronization and Control in Intrinsic and Designed Computation: An Information-Theoretic Analysis of Competing Models of Stochastic Computation

We adapt tools from information theory to analyze how an observer comes to synchronize with the hidden states of a finitary, stationary stochastic process. We show that synchronization is determined by both the process's internal organization and by an observer's model of it. We analyze these components using the convergence of state-block and block-state entropies, comparing them to the previously known convergence properties of the Shannon block entropy. Along the way, we introduce a hierarchy of information quantifiers as derivatives and integrals of these entropies, which parallels a similar hierarchy introduced for block entropy. We also draw out the duality between synchronization properties and a process's controllability. The tools lead to a new classification of a process's alternative representations in terms of minimality, synchronizability, and unifilarity.