Early Detection of Forest Calamities in Homogeneous Stands -- Deep Learning Applied to Bark-Beetle Outbreaks

Climate change has increased the vulnerability of forests to insect-related damage, resulting in widespread forest loss in Central Europe and highlighting the need for effective, continuous monitoring systems. Remote sensing based forest health monitoring, oftentimes, relies on supervised machine learning algorithms that require labeled training data. Monitoring temporal patterns through time series analysis offers a potential alternative for earlier detection of disturbance but requires substantial storage resources. This study investigates the potential of a Deep Learning algorithm based on a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Autoencoder for the detection of anomalies in forest health (e.g. bark beetle outbreaks), utilizing Sentinel-2 time series data. This approach is an alternative to supervised machine learning methods, avoiding the necessity for labeled training data. Furthermore, it is more memory-efficient than other time series analysis approaches, as a robust model can be created using only a 26-week-long time series as input. In this study, we monitored pure stands of spruce in Thuringia, Germany, over a 7-year period from 2018 to the end of 2024. Our best model achieved a detection accuracy of 87% on test data and was able to detect 61% of all anomalies at a very early stage (more than a month before visible signs of forest degradation). Compared to another widely used time series break detection algorithm - BFAST (Breaks For Additive Season and Trend), our approach consistently detected higher percentage of anomalies at an earlier stage. These findings suggest that LSTM-based Autoencoders could provide a promising, resource-efficient approach to forest health monitoring, enabling more timely responses to emerging threats.

Supervised Transfer Learning Framework for Fault Diagnosis in Wind Turbines

Common challenges in fault diagnosis include the lack of labeled data and the need to build models for each domain, resulting in many models that require supervision. Transfer learning can help tackle these challenges by learning cross-domain knowledge. Many approaches still require at least some labeled data in the target domain, and often provide unexplainable results. To this end, we propose a supervised transfer learning framework for fault diagnosis in wind turbines that operates in an Anomaly-Space. This space was created using SCADA data and vibration data and was built and provided to us by our research partner. Data within the Anomaly-Space can be interpreted as anomaly scores for each component in the wind turbine, making each value intuitive to understand. We conducted cross-domain evaluation on the train set using popular supervised classifiers like Random Forest, Light-Gradient-Boosting-Machines and Multilayer Perceptron as metamodels for the diagnosis of bearing and sensor faults. The Multilayer Perceptron achieved the highest classification performance. This model was then used for a final evaluation in our test set. The results show, that the proposed framework is able to detect cross-domain faults in the test set with a high degree of accuracy by using one single classifier, which is a significant asset to the diagnostic team.

KTbench: A Novel Data Leakage-Free Framework for Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge Tracing (KT) is concerned with predicting students' future performance on learning items in intelligent tutoring systems. Learning items are tagged with skill labels called knowledge concepts (KCs). Many KT models expand the sequence of item-student interactions into KC-student interactions by replacing learning items with their constituting KCs. This often results in a longer sequence length. This approach addresses the issue of sparse item-student interactions and minimises model parameters. However, two problems have been identified with such models. The first problem is the model's ability to learn correlations between KCs belonging to the same item, which can result in the leakage of ground truth labels and hinder performance. This problem can lead to a significant decrease in performance on datasets with a higher number of KCs per item. The second problem is that the available benchmark implementations ignore accounting for changes in sequence length when expanding KCs, leading to different models being tested with varying sequence lengths but still compared against the same benchmark. To address these problems, we introduce a general masking framework that mitigates the first problem and enhances the performance of such KT models while preserving the original model architecture without significant alterations. Additionally, we introduce KTbench, an open-source benchmark library designed to ensure the reproducibility of this work while mitigating the second problem.

Uncertainty Quantification in Anomaly Detection with Cross-Conformal $p$-Values

Given the growing significance of reliable, trustworthy, and explainable machine learning, the requirement of uncertainty quantification for anomaly detection systems has become increasingly important. In this context, effectively controlling Type I error rates ($\alpha$) without compromising the statistical power ($1-\beta$) of these systems can build trust and reduce costs related to false discoveries, particularly when follow-up procedures are expensive. Leveraging the principles of conformal prediction emerges as a promising approach for providing respective statistical guarantees by calibrating a model's uncertainty. This work introduces a novel framework for anomaly detection, termed cross-conformal anomaly detection, building upon well-known cross-conformal methods designed for prediction tasks. With that, it addresses a natural research gap by extending previous works in the context of inductive conformal anomaly detection, relying on the split-conformal approach for model calibration. Drawing on insights from conformal prediction, we demonstrate that the derived methods for calculating cross-conformal $p$-values strike a practical compromise between statistical efficiency (full-conformal) and computational efficiency (split-conformal) for uncertainty-quantified anomaly detection on benchmark datasets.