Early Detection of Forest Calamities in Homogeneous Stands -- Deep Learning Applied to Bark-Beetle Outbreaks

Climate change has increased the vulnerability of forests to insect-related damage, resulting in widespread forest loss in Central Europe and highlighting the need for effective, continuous monitoring systems. Remote sensing based forest health monitoring, oftentimes, relies on supervised machine learning algorithms that require labeled training data. Monitoring temporal patterns through time series analysis offers a potential alternative for earlier detection of disturbance but requires substantial storage resources. This study investigates the potential of a Deep Learning algorithm based on a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Autoencoder for the detection of anomalies in forest health (e.g. bark beetle outbreaks), utilizing Sentinel-2 time series data. This approach is an alternative to supervised machine learning methods, avoiding the necessity for labeled training data. Furthermore, it is more memory-efficient than other time series analysis approaches, as a robust model can be created using only a 26-week-long time series as input. In this study, we monitored pure stands of spruce in Thuringia, Germany, over a 7-year period from 2018 to the end of 2024. Our best model achieved a detection accuracy of 87% on test data and was able to detect 61% of all anomalies at a very early stage (more than a month before visible signs of forest degradation). Compared to another widely used time series break detection algorithm - BFAST (Breaks For Additive Season and Trend), our approach consistently detected higher percentage of anomalies at an earlier stage. These findings suggest that LSTM-based Autoencoders could provide a promising, resource-efficient approach to forest health monitoring, enabling more timely responses to emerging threats.

Methods for Mapping Forest Disturbance and Degradation from Optical Earth Observation Data: a Review

Purpose of review: This paper presents a review of the current state of the art in remote sensing based monitoring of forest disturbances and forest degradation from optical Earth Observation data. Part one comprises an overview of currently available optical remote sensing sensors, which can be used for forest disturbance and degradation mapping. Part two reviews the two main categories of existing approaches: classical image-to-image change detection and time series analysis. Recent findings: With the launch of the Sentinel-2a satellite and available Landsat imagery, time series analysis has become the most promising but also most demanding category of degradation mapping approaches. Four time series classification methods are distinguished. The methods are explained and their benefits and drawbacks are discussed. A separate chapter presents a number of recent forest degradation mapping studies for two different ecosystems: temperate forests with a geographical focus on Europe and tropical forests with a geographical focus on Africa. Summary: The review revealed that a wide variety of methods for the detection of forest degradation is already available. Today, the main challenge is to transfer these approaches to high resolution time series data from multiple sensors. Future research should also focus on the classification of disturbance types and the development of robust up-scalable methods to enable near real time disturbance mapping in support of operational reactive measures.