Neuro-Symbolic Bi-Directional Translation -- Deep Learning Explainability for Climate Tipping Point Research

In recent years, there has been an increase in using deep learning for climate and weather modeling. Though results have been impressive, explainability and interpretability of deep learning models are still a challenge. A third wave of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which includes logic and reasoning, has been described as a way to address these issues. Neuro-symbolic AI is a key component of this integration of logic and reasoning with deep learning. In this work we propose a neuro-symbolic approach called Neuro-Symbolic Question-Answer Program Translator, or NS-QAPT, to address explainability and interpretability for deep learning climate simulation, applied to climate tipping point discovery. The NS-QAPT method includes a bidirectional encoder-decoder architecture that translates between domain-specific questions and executable programs used to direct the climate simulation, acting as a bridge between climate scientists and deep learning models. We show early compelling results of this translation method and introduce a domain-specific language and associated executable programs for a commonly known tipping point, the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

A Generative Adversarial Network for Climate Tipping Point Discovery (TIP-GAN)

We propose a new Tipping Point Generative Adversarial Network (TIP-GAN) for better characterizing potential climate tipping points in Earth system models. We describe an adversarial game to explore the parameter space of these models, detect upcoming tipping points, and discover the drivers of tipping points. In this setup, a set of generators learn to construct model configurations that will invoke a climate tipping point. The discriminator learns to identify which generators are generating each model configuration and whether a given configuration will lead to a tipping point. The discriminator is trained using an oracle (a surrogate climate model) to test if a generated model configuration leads to a tipping point or not. We demonstrate the application of this GAN to invoke the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We share experimental results of modifying the loss functions and the number of generators to exploit the area of uncertainty in model state space near a climate tipping point. In addition, we show that our trained discriminator can predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy without the use of the oracle. This approach could generalize to other tipping points, and could augment climate modeling research by directing users interested in studying tipping points to parameter sets likely to induce said tipping points in their computationally intensive climate models.

Using Artificial Intelligence to aid Scientific Discovery of Climate Tipping Points

We propose a hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) climate modeling approach that enables climate modelers in scientific discovery using a climate-targeted simulation methodology based on a novel combination of deep neural networks and mathematical methods for modeling dynamical systems. The simulations are grounded by a neuro-symbolic language that both enables question answering of what is learned by the AI methods and provides a means of explainability. We describe how this methodology can be applied to the discovery of climate tipping points and, in particular, the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We show how this methodology is able to predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy using a surrogate climate model for ocean interaction. We also show preliminary results of neuro-symbolic method performance when translating between natural language questions and symbolically learned representations. Our AI methodology shows promising early results, potentially enabling faster climate tipping point related research that would otherwise be computationally infeasible.