Scalable Signature Kernel Computations for Long Time Series via Local Neumann Series Expansions

The signature kernel is a recent state-of-the-art tool for analyzing high-dimensional sequential data, valued for its theoretical guarantees and strong empirical performance. In this paper, we present a novel method for efficiently computing the signature kernel of long, high-dimensional time series via dynamically truncated recursive local power series expansions. Building on the characterization of the signature kernel as the solution of a Goursat PDE, our approach employs tilewise Neumann-series expansions to derive rapidly converging power series approximations of the signature kernel that are locally defined on subdomains and propagated iteratively across the entire domain of the Goursat solution by exploiting the geometry of the time series. Algorithmically, this involves solving a system of interdependent local Goursat PDEs by recursively propagating boundary conditions along a directed graph via topological ordering, with dynamic truncation adaptively terminating each local power series expansion when coefficients fall below machine precision, striking an effective balance between computational cost and accuracy. This method achieves substantial performance improvements over state-of-the-art approaches for computing the signature kernel, providing (a) adjustable and superior accuracy, even for time series with very high roughness; (b) drastically reduced memory requirements; and (c) scalability to efficiently handle very long time series (e.g., with up to half a million points or more) on a single GPU. These advantages make our method particularly well-suited for rough-path-assisted machine learning, financial modeling, and signal processing applications that involve very long and highly volatile data.

A Robustness Analysis of Blind Source Separation

Blind source separation (BSS) aims to recover an unobserved signal $S$ from its mixture $X=f(S)$ under the condition that the effecting transformation $f$ is invertible but unknown. As this is a basic problem with many practical applications, a fundamental issue is to understand how the solutions to this problem behave when their supporting statistical prior assumptions are violated. In the classical context of linear mixtures, we present a general framework for analysing such violations and quantifying their impact on the blind recovery of $S$ from $X$. Modelling $S$ as a multidimensional stochastic process, we introduce an informative topology on the space of possible causes underlying a mixture $X$, and show that the behaviour of a generic BSS-solution in response to general deviations from its defining structural assumptions can be profitably analysed in the form of explicit continuity guarantees with respect to this topology. This allows for a flexible and convenient quantification of general model uncertainty scenarios and amounts to the first comprehensive robustness framework for BSS. Our approach is entirely constructive, and we demonstrate its utility with novel theoretical guarantees for a number of statistical applications.

Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis for Continuous-Time Signals

We study the classical problem of recovering a multidimensional source process from observations of nonlinear mixtures of this process. Assuming statistical independence of the coordinate processes of the source, we show that this recovery is possible for many popular models of stochastic processes (up to order and monotone scaling of their coordinates) if the mixture is given by a sufficiently differentiable, invertible function. Key to our approach is the combination of tools from stochastic analysis and recent contrastive learning approaches to nonlinear ICA. This yields a scalable method with widely applicable theoretical guarantees for which our experiments indicate good performance.