Transferring climate change knowledge

Accurate climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation. Earth system model simulations, used to project climate change, inherently make approximations in their representation of small-scale physical processes, such as clouds, that are at the root of the uncertainties in global mean temperature's response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Several approaches have been developed to use historical observations to constrain future projections and reduce uncertainties in climate projections and climate feedbacks. Yet those methods cannot capture the non-linear complexity inherent in the climate system. Using a Transfer Learning approach, we show that Machine Learning, in particular Deep Neural Networks, can be used to optimally leverage and merge the knowledge gained from Earth system model simulations and historical observations to more accurately project global surface temperature fields in the 21st century. For the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5, we refine regional estimates and the global projection of the average global temperature in 2081-2098 (with respect to the period 1850-1900) to 2.73{\deg}C (2.44-3.11{\deg}C), 3.92{\deg}C (3.5-4.47{\deg}C) and 4.53{\deg}C (3.69-5.5{\deg}C), respectively, compared to the unconstrained 2.7{\deg}C (1.65-3.8{\deg}C), 3.71{\deg}C (2.56-4.97{\deg}C) and 4.47{\deg}C (2.95-6.02{\deg}C). Our findings show that the 1.5{\deg}C threshold of the Paris' agreement will be crossed in 2031 (2028-2034) for SSP2-4.5, in 2029 (2027-2031) for SSP3-7.0 and in 2028 (2025-2031) for SSP5-8.5. Similarly, the 2{\deg}C threshold will be exceeded in 2051 (2045-2059), 2044 (2040-2047) and 2042 (2038-2047) respectively. Our new method provides more accurate climate projections urgently required for climate adaptation.