The Early Bird Catches the Worm: Better Early Life Cycle Defect Predictors

Before researchers rush to reason across all available data, they should first check if the information is densest within some small region. We say this since, in 240 GitHub projects, we find that the information in that data ``clumps'' towards the earliest parts of the project. In fact, a defect prediction model learned from just the first 150 commits works as well, or better than state-of-the-art alternatives. Using just this early life cycle data, we can build models very quickly (using weeks, not months, of CPU time). Also, we can find simple models (with just two features) that generalize to hundreds of software projects. Based on this experience, we warn that prior work on generalizing software engineering defect prediction models may have needlessly complicated an inherently simple process. Further, prior work that focused on later-life cycle data now needs to be revisited since their conclusions were drawn from relatively uninformative regions. Replication note: all our data and scripts are online at https://github.com/snaraya7/early-defect-prediction-tse.