On the Precise Asymptotics and Refined Regret of the Variance-Aware UCB Algorithm

In this paper, we study the behavior of the Upper Confidence Bound-Variance (UCB-V) algorithm for Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problems, a variant of the canonical Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm that incorporates variance estimates into its decision-making process. More precisely, we provide an asymptotic characterization of the arm-pulling rates of UCB-V, extending recent results for the canonical UCB in Kalvit and Zeevi (2021) and Khamaru and Zhang (2024). In an interesting contrast to the canonical UCB, we show that the behavior of UCB-V can exhibit instability, meaning that the arm-pulling rates may not always be asymptotically deterministic. Besides the asymptotic characterization, we also provide non-asymptotic bounds for arm-pulling rates in the high probability regime, offering insights into regret analysis. As an application of this high probability result, we show that UCB-V can achieve a refined regret bound, previously unknown even for more complicate and advanced variance-aware online decision-making algorithms.