Real-world data distributions are often highly skewed. This has spurred a growing body of research on long-tailed recognition to address this imbalance in training classification models. Among the methods studied, multiplicative logit adjustment (MLA) stands out as a simple and effective method. However, it lacks theoretical guarantees, which raises concerns about the optimality of its adjustment method. We provide a theoretical justification for the effectiveness of MLA with the following two-step theory. First, we develop a theory that adjusts optimal decision boundaries by estimating feature spread on the basis of neural collapse. Then, we demonstrate that MLA approximates this optimal method. Additionally, through experiments on long-tailed datasets, we illustrate the practical usefulness of MLA under more realistic conditions. We also offer experimental insights to guide the tuning of MLA's hyperparameters.