Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversals

Accurately predicting the future motion of surrounding vehicles requires reasoning about the inherent uncertainty in goals and driving behavior. This uncertainty can be loosely decoupled into lateral (e.g., keeping lane, turning) and longitudinal (e.g., accelerating, braking). We present a novel method that combines learned discrete policy rollouts with a focused decoder on subsets of the lane graph. The policy rollouts explore different goals given our current observations, ensuring that the model captures lateral variability. The longitudinal variability is captured by our novel latent variable model decoder that is conditioned on various subsets of the lane graph. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes motion prediction dataset, and qualitatively demonstrates excellent scene compliance. Detailed ablations highlight the importance of both the policy rollouts and the decoder architecture.