Mood disorders, including depression and anxiety, often manifest through facial expressions. While previous research has explored the connection between facial features and emotions, machine learning algorithms for estimating mood disorder severity have been hindered by small datasets and limited real-world application. To address this gap, we analyzed facial videos of 11,427 participants, a dataset two orders of magnitude larger than previous studies. This comprehensive collection includes standardized facial expression videos from reading tasks, along with a detailed psychological scale that measures depression, anxiety, and stress. By examining the relationships among these emotional states and employing clustering analysis, we identified distinct subgroups embodying different emotional profiles. We then trained tree-based classifiers and deep learning models to estimate emotional states from facial features. Results indicate that models previously effective on small datasets experienced decreased performance when applied to our large dataset, highlighting the importance of data scale and mitigating overfitting in practical settings. Notably, our study identified subtle shifts in pupil dynamics and gaze orientation as potential markers of mood disorders, providing valuable information on the interaction between facial expressions and mental health. This research marks the first large-scale and comprehensive investigation of facial expressions in the context of mental health, laying the groundwork for future data-driven advancements in this field.