Causal Shift-Response Functions with Neural Networks: The Health Benefits of Lowering Air Quality Standards in the US

Policymakers are required to evaluate the health benefits of reducing the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS; i.e., the safety standards) for fine particulate matter PM 2.5 before implementing new policies. We formulate this objective as a shift-response function (SRF) and develop methods to analyze the problem using methods for causal inference, specifically under the stochastic interventions framework. SRFs model the average change in an outcome of interest resulting from a hypothetical shift in the observed exposure distribution. We propose a new broadly applicable doubly-robust method to learn SRFs using targeted regularization with neural networks. We evaluate our proposed method under various benchmarks specific for marginal estimates as a function of continuous exposure. Finally, we implement our estimator in the motivating application that considers the potential reduction in deaths from lowering the NAAQS from the current level of 12 $\mu g/m^3$ to levels that are recently proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency in the US (10, 9, and 8 $\mu g/m^3$).