Argumentation Models for Cyber Attribution

A major challenge in cyber-threat analysis is combining information from different sources to find the person or the group responsible for the cyber-attack. It is one of the most important technical and policy challenges in cyber-security. The lack of ground truth for an individual responsible for an attack has limited previous studies. In this paper, we take a first step towards overcoming this limitation by building a dataset from the capture-the-flag event held at DEFCON, and propose an argumentation model based on a formal reasoning framework called DeLP (Defeasible Logic Programming) designed to aid an analyst in attributing a cyber-attack. We build models from latent variables to reduce the search space of culprits (attackers), and show that this reduction significantly improves the performance of classification-based approaches from 37% to 62% in identifying the attacker.