Approximate Uncertainty Propagation for Continuous Gaussian Process Dynamical Systems

When learning continuous dynamical systems with Gaussian Processes, computing trajectories requires repeatedly mapping the distributions of uncertain states through the distribution of learned nonlinear functions, which is generally intractable. Since sampling-based approaches are computationally expensive, we consider approximations of the output and trajectory distributions. We show that existing methods make an incorrect implicit independence assumption and underestimate the model-induced uncertainty. We propose a piecewise linear approximation of the GP model yielding a class of numerical solvers for efficient uncertainty estimates matching sampling-based methods.