An Efficient Network for Predicting Time-Varying Distributions

While deep neural networks have achieved groundbreaking prediction results in many tasks, there is a class of data where existing architectures are not optimal -- sequences of probability distributions. Performing forward prediction on sequences of distributions has many important applications. However, there are two main challenges in designing a network model for this task. First, neural networks are unable to encode distributions compactly as each node encodes just a real value. A recent work of Distribution Regression Network (DRN) solved this problem with a novel network that encodes an entire distribution in a single node, resulting in improved accuracies while using much fewer parameters than neural networks. However, despite its compact distribution representation, DRN does not address the second challenge, which is the need to model time dependencies in a sequence of distributions. In this paper, we propose our Recurrent Distribution Regression Network (RDRN) which adopts a recurrent architecture for DRN. The combination of compact distribution representation and shared weights architecture across time steps makes RDRN suitable for modeling the time dependencies in a distribution sequence. Compared to neural networks and DRN, RDRN achieves the best prediction performance while keeping the network compact.