In this paper, a novel approach is proposed for learning robot control in contact-rich tasks such as wiping, by developing Diffusion Contact Model (DCM). Previous methods of learning such tasks relied on impedance control with time-varying stiffness tuning by performing Bayesian optimization by trial-and-error with robots. The proposed approach aims to reduce the cost of robot operation by predicting the robot contact trajectories from the variable stiffness inputs and using neural models. However, contact dynamics are inherently highly nonlinear, and their simulation requires iterative computations such as convex optimization. Moreover, approximating such computations by using finite-layer neural models is difficult. To overcome these limitations, the proposed DCM used the denoising diffusion models that could simulate the complex dynamics via iterative computations of multi-step denoising, thus improving the prediction accuracy. Stiffness tuning experiments conducted in simulated and real environments showed that the DCM achieved comparable performance to a conventional robot-based optimization method while reducing the number of robot trials.