Advancing Meteorological Forecasting: AI-based Approach to Synoptic Weather Map Analysis

As global warming increases the complexity of weather patterns; the precision of weather forecasting becomes increasingly important. Our study proposes a novel preprocessing method and convolutional autoencoder model developed to improve the interpretation of synoptic weather maps. These are critical for meteorologists seeking a thorough understanding of weather conditions. This model could recognize historical synoptic weather maps that nearly match current atmospheric conditions, marking a significant step forward in modern technology in meteorological forecasting. This comprises unsupervised learning models like VQ-VQE, as well as supervised learning models like VGG16, VGG19, Xception, InceptionV3, and ResNet50 trained on the ImageNet dataset, as well as research into newer models like EfficientNet and ConvNeXt. Our findings proved that, while these models perform well in various settings, their ability to identify comparable synoptic weather maps has certain limits. Our research, motivated by the primary goal of significantly increasing meteorologists' efficiency in labor-intensive tasks, discovered that cosine similarity is the most effective metric, as determined by a combination of quantitative and qualitative assessments to accurately identify relevant historical weather patterns. This study broadens our understanding by shifting the emphasis from numerical precision to practical application, ensuring that our model is effective in theory practical, and accessible in the complex and dynamic field of meteorology.

KARINA: An Efficient Deep Learning Model for Global Weather Forecast

Deep learning-based, data-driven models are gaining prevalence in climate research, particularly for global weather prediction. However, training the global weather data at high resolution requires massive computational resources. Therefore, we present a new model named KARINA to overcome the substantial computational demands typical of this field. This model achieves forecasting accuracy comparable to higher-resolution counterparts with significantly less computational resources, requiring only 4 NVIDIA A100 GPUs and less than 12 hours of training. KARINA combines ConvNext, SENet, and Geocyclic Padding to enhance weather forecasting at a 2.5{\deg} resolution, which could filter out high-frequency noise. Geocyclic Padding preserves pixels at the lateral boundary of the input image, thereby maintaining atmospheric flow continuity in the spherical Earth. SENet dynamically improves feature response, advancing atmospheric process modeling, particularly in the vertical column process as numerous channels. In this vein, KARINA sets new benchmarks in weather forecasting accuracy, surpassing existing models like the ECMWF S2S reforecasts at a lead time of up to 7 days. Remarkably, KARINA achieved competitive performance even when compared to the recently developed models (Pangu-Weather, GraphCast, ClimaX, and FourCastNet) trained with high-resolution data having 100 times larger pixels. Conclusively, KARINA significantly advances global weather forecasting by efficiently modeling Earth's atmosphere with improved accuracy and resource efficiency.

Advancing Data-driven Weather Forecasting: Time-Sliding Data Augmentation of ERA5

Modern deep learning techniques, which mimic traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and are derived from global atmospheric reanalysis data, have caused a significant revolution within a few years. In this new paradigm, our research introduces a novel strategy that deviates from the common dependence on high-resolution data, which is often constrained by computational resources, and instead utilizes low-resolution data (2.5 degrees) for global weather prediction and climate data analysis. Our main focus is evaluating data-driven weather prediction (DDWP) frameworks, specifically addressing sample size adequacy, structural improvements to the model, and the ability of climate data to represent current climatic trends. By using the Adaptive Fourier Neural Operator (AFNO) model via FourCastNet and a proposed time-sliding method to inflate the dataset of the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), this paper improves on conventional approaches by adding more variables and a novel approach to data augmentation and processing. Our findings reveal that despite the lower resolution, the proposed approach demonstrates considerable accuracy in predicting atmospheric conditions, effectively rivaling higher-resolution models. Furthermore, the study confirms the model's proficiency in reflecting current climate trends and its potential in predicting future climatic events, underscoring its utility in climate change strategies. This research marks a pivotal step in the realm of meteorological forecasting, showcasing the feasibility of lower-resolution data in producing reliable predictions and opening avenues for more accessible and inclusive climate modeling. The insights gleaned from this study not only contribute to the advancement of climate science but also lay the groundwork for future innovations in the field.