Fairness in Survival Analysis: A Novel Conditional Mutual Information Augmentation Approach

Survival analysis, a vital tool for predicting the time to event, has been used in many domains such as healthcare, criminal justice, and finance. Like classification tasks, survival analysis can exhibit bias against disadvantaged groups, often due to biases inherent in data or algorithms. Several studies in both the IS and CS communities have attempted to address fairness in survival analysis. However, existing methods often overlook the importance of prediction fairness at pre-defined evaluation time points, which is crucial in real-world applications where decision making often hinges on specific time frames. To address this critical research gap, we introduce a new fairness concept: equalized odds (EO) in survival analysis, which emphasizes prediction fairness at pre-defined time points. To achieve the EO fairness in survival analysis, we propose a Conditional Mutual Information Augmentation (CMIA) approach, which features a novel fairness regularization term based on conditional mutual information and an innovative censored data augmentation technique. Our CMIA approach can effectively balance prediction accuracy and fairness, and it is applicable to various survival models. We evaluate the CMIA approach against several state-of-the-art methods within three different application domains, and the results demonstrate that CMIA consistently reduces prediction disparity while maintaining good accuracy and significantly outperforms the other competing methods across multiple datasets and survival models (e.g., linear COX, deep AFT).

Forecasting with Multiple Seasonality

An emerging number of modern applications involve forecasting time series data that exhibit both short-time dynamics and long-time seasonality. Specifically, time series with multiple seasonality is a difficult task with comparatively fewer discussions. In this paper, we propose a two-stage method for time series with multiple seasonality, which does not require pre-determined seasonality periods. In the first stage, we generalize the classical seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model in multiple seasonality regime. In the second stage, we utilize an appropriate criterion for lag order selection. Simulation and empirical studies show the excellent predictive performance of our method, especially compared to a recently popular `Facebook Prophet' model for time series.