A Bayesian approach to quantifying uncertainties and improving generalizability in traffic prediction models

Deep-learning models for traffic data prediction can have superior performance in modeling complex functions using a multi-layer architecture. However, a major drawback of these approaches is that most of these approaches do not offer forecasts with uncertainty estimates, which are essential for traffic operations and control. Without uncertainty estimates, it is difficult to place any level of trust to the model predictions, and operational strategies relying on overconfident predictions can lead to worsening traffic conditions. In this study, we propose a Bayesian recurrent neural network framework for uncertainty quantification in traffic prediction with higher generalizability by introducing spectral normalization to its hidden layers. In our paper, we have shown that normalization alters the training process of deep neural networks by controlling the model's complexity and reducing the risk of overfitting to the training data. This, in turn, helps improve the generalization performance of the model on out-of-distribution datasets. Results demonstrate that spectral normalization improves uncertainty estimates and significantly outperforms both the layer normalization and model without normalization in single-step prediction horizons. This improved performance can be attributed to the ability of spectral normalization to better localize the feature space of the data under perturbations. Our findings are especially relevant to traffic management applications, where predicting traffic conditions across multiple locations is the goal, but the availability of training data from multiple locations is limited. Spectral normalization, therefore, provides a more generalizable approach that can effectively capture the underlying patterns in traffic data without requiring location-specific models.

Evaluating the reliability of automatically generated pedestrian and bicycle crash surrogates

Vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as pedestrians and bicyclists, are at a higher risk of being involved in crashes with motor vehicles, and crashes involving VRUs also are more likely to result in severe injuries or fatalities. Signalized intersections are a major safety concern for VRUs due to their complex and dynamic nature, highlighting the need to understand how these road users interact with motor vehicles and deploy evidence-based countermeasures to improve safety performance. Crashes involving VRUs are relatively infrequent, making it difficult to understand the underlying contributing factors. An alternative is to identify and use conflicts between VRUs and motorized vehicles as a surrogate for safety performance. Automatically detecting these conflicts using a video-based systems is a crucial step in developing smart infrastructure to enhance VRU safety. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation conducted a study using video-based event monitoring system to assess VRU and motor vehicle interactions at fifteen signalized intersections across Pennsylvania to improve VRU safety performance. This research builds on that study to assess the reliability of automatically generated surrogates in predicting confirmed conflicts using advanced data-driven models. The surrogate data used for analysis include automatically collectable variables such as vehicular and VRU speeds, movements, post-encroachment time, in addition to manually collected variables like signal states, lighting, and weather conditions. The findings highlight the varying importance of specific surrogates in predicting true conflicts, some being more informative than others. The findings can assist transportation agencies to collect the right types of data to help prioritize infrastructure investments, such as bike lanes and crosswalks, and evaluate their effectiveness.

Newell's theory based feature transformations for spatio-temporal traffic prediction

Deep learning (DL) models for spatio-temporal traffic flow forecasting employ convolutional or graph-convolutional filters along with recurrent neural networks to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in traffic data. These models, such as CNN-LSTM, utilize traffic flows from neighboring detector stations to predict flows at a specific location of interest. However, these models are limited in their ability to capture the broader dynamics of the traffic system, as they primarily learn features specific to the detector configuration and traffic characteristics at the target location. Hence, the transferability of these models to different locations becomes challenging, particularly when data is unavailable at the new location for model training. To address this limitation, we propose a traffic flow physics-based feature transformation for spatio-temporal DL models. This transformation incorporates Newell's uncongested and congested-state estimators of traffic flows at the target locations, enabling the models to learn broader dynamics of the system. Our methodology is empirically validated using traffic data from two different locations. The results demonstrate that the proposed feature transformation improves the models' performance in predicting traffic flows over different prediction horizons, as indicated by better goodness-of-fit statistics. An important advantage of our framework is its ability to be transferred to new locations where data is unavailable. This is achieved by appropriately accounting for spatial dependencies based on station distances and various traffic parameters. In contrast, regular DL models are not easily transferable as their inputs remain fixed. It should be noted that due to data limitations, we were unable to perform spatial sensitivity analysis, which calls for further research using simulated data.

Hybrid hidden Markov LSTM for short-term traffic flow prediction

Deep learning (DL) methods have outperformed parametric models such as historical average, ARIMA and variants in predicting traffic variables into short and near-short future, that are critical for traffic management. Specifically, recurrent neural network (RNN) and its variants (e.g. long short-term memory) are designed to retain long-term temporal correlations and therefore are suitable for modeling sequences. However, multi-regime models assume the traffic system to evolve through multiple states (say, free-flow, congestion in traffic) with distinct characteristics, and hence, separate models are trained to characterize the traffic dynamics within each regime. For instance, Markov-switching models with a hidden Markov model (HMM) for regime identification is capable of capturing complex dynamic patterns and non-stationarity. Interestingly, both HMM and LSTM can be used for modeling an observation sequence from a set of latent or, hidden state variables. In LSTM, the latent variable is computed in a deterministic manner from the current observation and the previous latent variable, while, in HMM, the set of latent variables is a Markov chain. Inspired by research in natural language processing, a hybrid hidden Markov-LSTM model that is capable of learning complementary features in traffic data is proposed for traffic flow prediction. Results indicate significant performance gains in using hybrid architecture compared to conventional methods such as Markov switching ARIMA and LSTM.