Coupling Machine Learning Local Predictions with a Computational Fluid Dynamics Solver to Accelerate Transient Buoyant Plume Simulations

Data-driven methods demonstrate considerable potential for accelerating the inherently expensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers. Nevertheless, pure machine-learning surrogate models face challenges in ensuring physical consistency and scaling up to address real-world problems. This study presents a versatile and scalable hybrid methodology, combining CFD and machine learning, to accelerate long-term incompressible fluid flow simulations without compromising accuracy. A neural network was trained offline using simulated data of various two-dimensional transient buoyant plume flows. The objective was to leverage local features to predict the temporal changes in the pressure field in comparable scenarios. Due to cell-level predictions, the methodology was successfully applied to diverse geometries without additional training. Pressure estimates were employed as initial values to accelerate the pressure-velocity coupling procedure. The results demonstrated an average improvement of 94% in the initial guess for solving the Poisson equation. The first pressure corrector acceleration reached a mean factor of 3, depending on the iterative solver employed. Our work reveals that machine learning estimates at the cell level can enhance the efficiency of CFD iterative linear solvers while maintaining accuracy. Although the scalability of the methodology to more complex cases has yet to be demonstrated, this study underscores the prospective value of domain-specific hybrid solvers for CFD.

A Bayesian Model Committee Approach to Forecasting Global Solar Radiation

This paper proposes to use a rather new modelling approach in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Neural Network (NN) models are combined to form a model committee. The Bayesian inference is used to affect a probability to each model in the committee. Hence, each model's predictions are weighted by their respective probability. The models are fitted to one year of hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) measurements. Another year (the test set) is used for making genuine one hour ahead (h+1) out-of-sample forecast comparisons. The proposed approach is benchmarked against the persistence model. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach.